MCX Natural Gas Trend : Forecast Report as on 27th Mar 2013

27 Mar, 2013

Fundamental View

Natural gas rose to an 18-month high following forecasts of below-normal temperatures that would boost demand for the heating fuel.

Matt Rogers, the president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said the Midwest and East will have seasonal to below-average temperatures in the next 10 to 15 days. Gas stockpiles may have dropped 86 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 22, according to the median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The five-year average change for the week is a gain of 6 billion.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gas futures for April delivery increased 2.9 percent to $3.976 per million British thermal units, the highest settlement since Sept. 14, 2011.

U.K. gas for next month climbed as much as 2.6 percent to 75.95 pence a therm, the highest since Nov. 5, 2008, before trading unchanged at 74 pence, broker data showed.

The within-day price rose 1 percent to 98.5 pence. A therm is 100,000 Btu. ( Source :Bloomberg) 

Technical View : 

           If we look at technical aspects of Natural Gas we foresee on monthly chart there is a H & S pattern is being formed which makes us feel that this script seems more postive on high side  .We may also see that Natural Gas has breaken the falling wedges after 2 & half years . If we look at Elliot wave strategy the 1st target is seems at 223 & deciding place will be close above 224 level . At the time of uploading this report NG is trading between 215 to 217  which is seen in the chart right side green color rates are being displayed  . 

Trading strategy : On counts it is seen two way applicable methods one on red dotted line and other on blue so untill the mentioned level reach its becoming quite difficult to decide the trend .

Conclusion : Overall scenerio looks positive .

 

Natural Gas : Monthly Chart:

 

Natural Gas :  Weekly  Elliot counts

 

 

Disclaimer :

This document has been prepared by B.Sailesh Khandelwal, Chief Technical Analyst to share the updates on the respective investment component and must not be considered for granted to make investment/trading decisions. The Elliot Wave counts are always remains an excercise of probablilty and not certainty. This document does not provide any guarantee on the analysis and its made for illustration puropose only.

                 

 

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